With total transaction volumes expected to surpass $40 billion between June and August 2025, Dubai’s real estate market is expected to have its busiest summer on record. According to data examined by real estate firm Elite Merit Real Estate LLC, the market jumped to AED142.7 billion ($38.9 billion) in Q1 2025 alone. This is a 22% year-over-year increase and sets the stage for summer spending in the AED150–160 billion ($41–44 billion) range. This year’s estimate is positioned for a possible 25–30 percent seasonal growth, as Summer 2024 ended with slightly over $33 billion in total transactions.
The maturing development pipeline is one of the main forces behind this trend. Now that projects started in 2023–2024 are nearing completion, investors in Summer 2025 have a last-ditch chance to buy units before completion-linked price rises go into effect. Over 63 percent of all transactions are now off-plan, up from 54 percent the previous year, demonstrating the increasing confidence in the city’s development trajectory.
This spike in activity is taking place in a favorable environment, with significant off-plan momentum, continued price appreciation, and improved macroeconomic conditions all working together to create what many believe to be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for international investors. Due to limited supply and continued demand from overseas, apartments are expected to appreciate by 6–9% annually, while villa values may rise by 7–10%. By handover, off-plan units in developing neighborhoods like Arjan and JVC should generate 15–25 percent in capital gains.
New opportunities for buyers
Due to seasonal travel, Q3 has historically been a quieter period, but it now gives buyers more negotiating power. Developers, especially in the mid-luxury market, are reacting to this dynamic by offering limited-time summer incentives and alluring post-handover payment arrangements.
“Summer 2025 offers a compelling value window that we expect will close quickly by Q4,” said Elkhan Salikhov, CEO at Elite Merit Real Estate. “We’re seeing a convergence of factors—pricing still below peak, soft summer inventory pressure, and upcoming project handovers—creating an ideal moment for experienced buyers.”
