In the third quarter of 2025, the residential real estate market in Dubai maintained its upward trend, with off-plan sales emerging as the primary growth driver. Cavendish Maxwell’s most recent market analysis states that demand was driven by investor confidence and population expansion, resulting in a 17.1% year-over-year increase in total residential transactions to 55,300 agreements.
With an astounding 76% of all market activity, the off-plan segment was the best performer. Despite a slowdown in new project launches during the period, off-plan sales reached a record 42,000 agreements, up 18.1% quarter over quarter and 23.6% year over year. “The surge in off-plan volumes occurred despite a reduction in the number of new launches, indicating that buyer demand for off-plan units remained strong in Q3 2025,” the report noted.
Analysts attribute this dominance to flexible payment plans and attractive developer incentives, which continue to lure both investors and end-users. “The market has become increasingly focused on future developments, driven largely by payment flexibility and developer incentives,” the report stated. Initial developer sales represented 93.9 per cent of off-plan activity, up from 90.3 per cent a year earlier, underscoring the appeal of buying directly from developers. In contrast, off-plan resales fell to 6.1 per cent, suggesting a cooling appetite among speculative investors who traditionally flip properties before completion.
The ready property category showed a more muted picture while off-plan sales skyrocketed. 13,300 completed house transactions were completed, a 5.4% decrease from Q2 and a mere 0.6% increase over the previous year. This slowdown could be the result of a temporary correction or price sensitivity among purchasers. “If this pattern continues, it could indicate a modest cooling in the ready property segment,” the report cautioned.
Due to a wave of apartment-focused launches earlier in the year, apartments continued to dominate all segments, especially off-plan, where they accounted for 89.4% of sales. While their percentage of ready transactions increased marginally due to demand from families looking for larger layouts and outdoor spaces, villas and townhouses witnessed slower progress in off-plan sales.
Trends in supply and prices
Prices continued to rise despite the uneven performance of the various segments. Due to high demand from both domestic and foreign customers, residential sales prices increased 4.5% quarterly and 16.1% annually. The study did point out that growth differed by place, with some communities reporting double-digit increases and others experiencing more modest rises.
On the supply side, about 9,400 units—a materialization rate of 41.3%—were delivered in Q3, significantly less than the anticipated 22,800 units. 28,100 units were completed in the first nine months, an increase of 6% from the previous year. Construction schedules have noticeably cut, averaging 880 days in 2025 as opposed to 1,340 days in 2023, indicating faster project completion.
Looking ahead, the market faces a critical test as 48,200 units are projected for Q4 and an estimated 366,000 units through 2028, with the bulk scheduled for 2026 and 2027. “While this pipeline might raise concerns about oversupply, the reality is more measured,” said Ronan Arthur, Director and Head of Residential Valuation at Cavendish Maxwell. “Rather than signaling imbalance, this points to a period of healthy normalization in Dubai’s housing market.”
Prospects for the market
The fundamentals are still strong despite impending supply issues. Dubai’s economy is still growing; GDP growth projections have been raised, and by 2030, the city’s population is predicted to be close to 5 million. These elements support trust in the market’s resiliency, along with investor-friendly laws and infrastructure expenditures.
Chief Economist Julian Roche summed up the outlook: “The debate over which force would shape the Dubai market—potential oversupply or rising global uncertainty prompting a flight to quality—appears, for now, to have been settled in favor of the latter. However, the coming years will test the sustainability of price growth as a substantial pipeline of new supply is delivered.”
For the time being, off-plan sales continue to be the focal point of Dubai’s real estate narrative, breaking records and solidifying the city’s standing as a major international real estate destination.
